The numbers

491 resale flats transacted at $1 million or above in Q2 2026. That beats the previous quarterly record of 480, set in Q3 2025. It is 19.5% above Q1 2026's 411 deals and 18.3% above the 415 recorded in Q2 2025.

Combined with Q1, first-half 2026 stands at roughly 902 million-dollar transactions, well ahead of the 763 recorded in the first half of the prior year.

As a share of all resale deals: 7.7% in Q2, up from 6.5% in Q1 — the highest proportion on record.

By flat type: 212 four-room, 183 five-room, 93 executive, two three-room, one multi-generation.

Meanwhile the Resale Price Index fell 0.3% to 202.7, following a 0.1% dip in Q1 — the first back-to-back quarterly decline in nearly seven years.

Why both things happen at once

An index measures the average. A record measures the top.

Three forces are running simultaneously:

One — the MOP wave is delivering newer stock into the best locations. Roughly 13,500 flats reach MOP in 2026. A newly-MOP flat in a mature estate is the single most sought-after profile in the resale market: full 94-year remaining lease, modern layout, no renovation lag. Projects like Bedok South Horizon have been setting price records precisely because they combine newness with location. The same supply wave that softens the index at the median is what supplies the record at the top.

Two — buyers are becoming more discriminating, not less willing. Volume was 6,268 transactions, about 10% below the year-ago quarter. Buyers have more choice — more BTO supply, more MOP flats — so they are paying up for the specific attributes they want and walking away from everything else. That widens the spread between the best unit in a block and the average one.

Three — the ceiling keeps moving. The current record is a five-room at Henderson Road in Bukit Merah at $1,728,000 (April 2026). Million-dollar transactions have now occurred across 18 HDB towns, spreading well beyond the traditional Bukit Merah / Toa Payoh / Queenstown / Bishan core. The Central Area, Queenstown and Toa Payoh recorded million-dollar median prices for four-room flats in Q2.

What this means if you are selling

This is a positioning market, not a pricing market.

The difference matters. In a rising market, you price to the trend and the trend catches up to you. In a market where the index is flat but the top end is setting records, the trend will not rescue an optimistic price. What gets you to the top of your band is positioning: facing, layout, condition, floor level, and how the unit is presented to qualified buyers.

Two identical-on-paper flats in the same block routinely transact $80,000 to $120,000 apart. That gap is not luck. It is marketing reach, buyer qualification, and negotiation. It is also the entire argument for proper professional marketing rather than a listing and a hope.

Ask yourself the seller's question honestly: any last offer so far, and how long have you been marketing? If the answer is a low offer and a long time, the problem is rarely the market.

What this means if you are buying at this level

Above $1 million, the financing structure changes shape and most buyers underestimate it.

HDB concessionary loans are not available above the HDB Loan Eligibility ceiling. At these price points you are on bank financing at 75% LTV. On a $1.5 million flat, that is a $375,000 down payment — of which only 5%, or $75,000, may be paid in CPF. The remainder is cash or CPF beyond the minimum cash component, subject to the rules that apply. TDSR at 55% and MSR at 30% still bind.

Run that number before you fall in love with a unit. A million-dollar flat is not a stretch version of a $700,000 flat. It is a different financing exercise.

The honest caveat

Million-dollar flats remain a minority of the market — 7.7% at the record. The overwhelming majority of HDB buyers transact well below that. If you are looking at these headlines and recalibrating your own flat's value upward, check the actual comparables in your block, not the record in another town.

And if you are a younger buyer looking at this and planning to replicate it through a BTO in a choice location: the Standard, Plus and Prime classification introduced from the October 2024 launch deliberately closed that route. Plus and Prime flats carry a 10-year MOP and subsidy recovery on resale. The windfall path has been designed out on purpose.

If you own a flat that has recently crossed MOP in a mature estate, the difference between an average sale and a top-of-band sale is often six figures. I price on transaction data and market the unit properly to qualified buyers. Would you be open for a discussion on what your flat can realistically achieve?

Eric Lee · TheMarketPlace, PropNex Realty
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